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table of contents
Series Page
Title Page
Copyright
Contents
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Organised crime and human mobility in the region
The nature of organised criminal groups
Organised criminal groups in Mexico
Organised criminal groups in Northern Central America
Methodology and approach
Fieldwork in Mexico and El Salvador, 2015
Ethical considerations
Data analysis
The morphogenetic approach: a critical realist analytic framework
The Structure–Agency Impasse
Mixed Flows and Transit Migration
Applying the morphogenetic approach in my data analysis
Engagement and contribution
The structure of the book
Notes
1. Criminal violence as a driver of internal displacement and external migration
Migration out of Northern Central America
Historical context of displacement and migration in the region
Criminal violence as a driver of migration
New in-country migration controls in Mexico – Plan Frontera Sur
Organised criminal groups and an emerging displacement crisis
Criminal violence in Northern Central America
Understanding external migration driven by organised crime as this new factor emerged
Internal displacement caused by gang violence in Northern Central America
Understanding how organised crime was causing this emerging displacement trend
Understanding the role and response of the state as this new wave of displacement emerged
Organised crime and disorganised movement: conceptualising internal displacement in El Salvador and Honduras
Criminal governance: framing the source of risk
Triggers of flight: levels and immediacy of risk
Fleeing risk: who flees, when and how
Seeking safety: strategies in internal displacement
Displacement dynamics: ostensibly random, fundamentally precarious
Decision-making underpinned by the same logic
Why people leave their country because of criminal violence and persecution by organised criminal groups
Factors that contribute to external flight
Different Levels of Risk, Different Patterns of Mobility
Why Internal Displacement May Not Be Viable
Personal experience of threats or violence and the decision to migrate
Internal Displacement Abandoned in Favour of External Migration
No Internal Displacement Before External Migration
Pre-Emptive External Migration
New Understanding About How Criminal Violence Causes External Flight
Agency and decision-making in displacement caused by criminal violence
Notes
2. Transit and trajectory through Mexico: navigating risk and finding protection
Locating decisions in transit migration
“I never knew we had a right to be safe”: the right to seek international protection as an influence on migration trajectory
Factors that contribute to determining destination or making asylum claims
Rights information, decision-making and trajectory: morphogenetic analysis
Rights Information and Changes in Destination
Unchanged Destination or Temporary Changes to Plans
How receiving rights information during transit affects migration trajectory
Risk and violence during transit and their impact on migrants’ agency
Migrant experiences in southern Mexico, 2015
Prior knowledge of risk during transit
Criminal attacks during transit
Decision-making following criminal attacks
No Changes to Planned Destination Following Criminal Attacks
Changes to Planned Destination Following Criminal Attacks
Decision-making of those who had fled criminal violence and persecution
How criminal abuse during transit affects migrant agency
Decision-making in transit as part of the migration journey
Notes
3. Organised crime groups as a threat to migrants during transit
Locating criminal violence and abuse in the transit state
Transit migration: the nature and source of vulnerability and abuse
The vulnerability of people in transit
Violence against migrants in transit: abuse and its systematic nature
The situation in southern Mexico after Plan Frontera Sur
Migrant Agency: Self-Protection Strategies
Perpetrators, operational models and territorial control
The state: impunity, corruption and collusion
Characterising violence during transit migration as structural violence
Contextual factors that enable criminal abuse during transit
The development of organised crime as a structural force during transit: morphogenetic analysis
First phase: organised crime evolves as structural factor in transit migration
Second phase: impact of new migration controls on criminal activity
The causal role of policy
Criminal abuse, policy-driven harm and the role of the state
Notes
4. People-smuggling through Mexico and the role of organised crime and corruption
Conceptualising people-smuggling
People-smuggling and state integrity
People-smuggling and organised crime in Mexico and Central America
People-smuggling in the region: its role and evolution 2000–15
Criminal actors involved in people-smuggling
The impact of Plan Frontera Sur (2014–16)
Transcontinental links
Migration controls and the evolution of people-smuggling and organised crime: a morphogenetic perspective
The evolution of people-smuggling in Mexico and Central America: morphogenetic analysis
First Phase: Post-2001 Migration Controls
Second Phase: Mexican Security Policy After 2006
Third Phase: The Implementation of Plan Frontera Sur in 2014
Impact of migration controls on people-smuggling and related corruption
Migrant agency in the context of people-smuggling
Migrant agency: constrained by circumstance
Migrant agency: transforming power and emergent properties
First Phase: Agency Leads to Structural Elaboration in Transit State
Second Phase: Agency Continues Despite Previous Structural Elaboration
Impact of agency on the deployment of policy and on its efficacy
People-smuggling, corruption and state integrity
Notes
5. Law, policy and the state: accountability for adverse consequences, criminal activity and corruption
Externalisation of migration controls under Plan Frontera Sur
Developing perspectives on policy outcomes
Locating understanding about the consequences of policy, the acts of non-state actors and state accountability
Adverse policy outcomes and policy gaps
The externalisation of migration controls and the transit state
State accountability
Deportations under Plan Frontera Sur: state obligations versus policy outcomes
Obligations to those with potential international protection needs
Implementation of Plan Frontera Sur: a morphogenetic perspective
Adverse consequences of Plan Frontera Sur
Deportations that may not meet legal obligations
Financial incentives
Implications of political pressure and financial incentives
The state, abuse by organised crime and impunity
State responsibility for acts of non-state actors: due diligence and beyond
Morphogenetic perspective on state inaction: from tolerance to impunity
Impunity and the foreseeable adverse consequences of policy: insight from morphogenetic analysis
Implications of ‘collateral damage’ for notions of state accountability
The state and people-smuggling: the nexus of migration and corruption
Coexistence and collusion
Weakened state integrity
Implications of corruption for notions of state responsibility
The dimensions of the state’s role and responsibility
Notes
Conclusions and reflections
Contributions to knowledge and understanding about the empirical situation
Displacement and migration caused by organised crime in Northern Central America
Abuse during transit in Mexico
People-smuggling through Mexico
Policy and state responsibility
Morphogenetic approach: a tool for analysis and synthesis
Contribution to broader academic debates
Agency, decision-making and displacement dynamics in forced migration
Policy gaps and adverse consequences
State accountability
Synthesising these debates
Final reflections
The evolving situation in Mexico and Central America
Global relevance
Future research directions
Notes
Bibliography
Index
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